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Phil Galfond Reviews Kristen Foxen's Bluffs at the 2024 WSOP Main Event

27 Feb 2025

Shane Lambert 27 Feb 2025

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Phil Galfond reviews two of Kristen Foxen's hands from the 2024 WSOP Main Event.
Her pre-flop call with Kings disguised hand strength, aiding a bluff.
Montoya missed a chance to win; Astedt's cautious bet indicated nervousness.

Phil Galfond reviews a couple of big hands involving Kristen Foxen at the Main Event of the 2024 World Series of Poker. Players involved: Kristen Foxen (Canadian), Niklas Astedt, and Tyler Montoya (in the glasses).

Phil Galfond recently posted a video to his social media account at YouTube (premiered February 26th, 2025). He reviewed a couple of hands involving Kristen Foxen from the 2024 Main Event at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas.

While there are two hands examined in the video, my commentary is only provided for one at this point. I might look at the second-hand a little later. If you are a Foxen fan, you probably only want to watch the first hand anyways.

Calling - instead of raising - confused the other players

Foxen's original call preflop with Kings helped her out in this hand because it ended up disguising the strength of her starting hand.

She was probably trying to appear weak so that if the flop came Q or J high, someone would play a big pot with her, thinking she had a weaker kicker on top pair. It's hard to put someone on something as strong as Kings when they flat call like she did.

Furthermore, there is some conventional wisdom in poker that you can play a bigger range of hands in late position, especially on the button (because you are last to act after the flop).

Accordingly, I think a lot of good players would put Foxen on a big range of hands, including strong aces, two high cards like Q-T, or even middle and connected cards.

Middle aces (ie. A7, A6, or A5) are also on your mind, not to mention Foxen might have played ace-queen or ace-king conservatively preflop.

I doubt anyone would put her on Kings for sure and that set her up in the hand to bluff.

Tyler Montoya Made a Big Mistake in the Hand

But there is also the mistake that Montoya made in the hand. He was never winning it but he was set up for a chop.

Yet, if you throw out the percentages, which are based on our ability to see the cards, and just focus on betting leverage, there was a chance for Montoya to win the hand outright after the turn.

After the turn, he had top pair and a decent flush draw. The latter is what Astedt did not have. I think a lot of players would have had some betting confidence with top pair, a Jack kicker, and a Jack-high flush draw.

A pot-sized bet after the turn might have produced a fold out of the Kings as it's generally a bad idea to call a big bet if you think you are drawing to a 21% situation (ie. she could make a nut-flush or hit a king).

I think Montoya's apprehensiveness was likely what partly set up Foxen's bluff. He should have shoved or pot-sized bet after the flop or turn, especially given that his stack was small. If he wasn't going to shove with top pair, then why call fairly short-stacked with AJ in the first place?

Was Astedt's bet size a sign of nervousness or a value bet?

I think with Niklas Astedt's raise of just 200,000 into the 1.5M chip pot that Foxen might have sensed some apprehensiveness in him. It seems like a "test the water" bet, which means he is bluffable.

He's a very good player but, in this hand, he made a mistake. He may have been better off check-calling in this hand after the river, which, admittedly, is easy for us to say.

If you listen to the Galfond commentary, Foxen's King of hearts is referred to as a "blocker." That means that she knows nobody can have a King-high flush. Her King of hearts, 'blocks' the other players from having that hand.

In short, Foxen had every reason to bluff. Both of her opponents seemed a bit nervous, she needed to bet to win, and her original pre-flop call (as opposed to raising) meant she could have a ton of different hands.

This latter point is one that Galfond misses but it's central to why her bluff worked. Astedt and Montoya had to be thinking she had any one of twenty hands - including plenty that they lose to.

Since she raised after the river, why can't she have 7-6, 8-9, AK, AQ, or even KhXh?

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